“In particular, we compared stated Proved and Probable reserves (known as 2P, gas volumes already classed to be commercial) and matched them against our own assessment of drilling statistics for 8,000 gas wells, stated reserves for 50 gas exploration permits and 250 production licences (PL) and 10 years of production data from 250 PLs along the east coast.
“Our conclusion is that CSG (which comprises 91 per cent of stated east coast reserves) has been oversold, with potential reserves risk.
“The new Gladstone CSG to LNG industry is fed by booked 2P reserves but substantial reserves are booked in areas that have not yet demonstrated any commercial production.”
Dr Bethune said this scenario was compounded by the fact that the east coast’s conventional gas fields are now mature and face increasing output challenges.
“While there is some investment underway in new east coast gas supply, it is nowhere near sufficient and this reinforces the growing concern about gas supply security on the east coast,” he said.
“It is not an issue of short-term security. With ~3,500 terajoules per day of gas production in Queensland from numerous plants, the east coast is better protected against any short-term supply emergency. The concern is more for longer-term security.”